Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Testing #1 - ICU or EU?

At the Brussels summit in mid-May, Nicholas Sarkozy threatened to pull France out of the euro if Germany didn’t help Greece with its debt crises. Disagreement is common in any organization, especially in a big and complex one like the European Union (EU).
However, the threat to quit is uncommon: it depicts the seriousness of tension within EU. Just like in a family, when a couple threatens to get a divorce, the situation must be very serious.
The problem began with the 2008 economic crisis that cost the EU economy tremendously. Despite the $800 billion rescue package put forward by various EU governments in 2009, GDP shrank by 4%- deeper than 2.4% in the US, the epicenter of the crisis. The EU job market contracted by almost 5million, creating a more challenging political climate in several countries, especially those with strong labor unions.
Before any light could be seen at the end of the tunnel, another crisis erupted. This time, the source was inside EU, in Greece. Ironically, the ‘crisis’ comes from the ancient Greek ‘krinein’. Economic integration is a two-edged sword. In good times, it has easily spread economic opportunity among EU members. Through trade of goods and services (free trade), wealth grows and is distributed. In bad times, economic integration has enabled risk and crisis to also spread out quickly trough the decrease in trade, the shrinkage in asset values and capital flight.

COMMENT:
The financial bail-out could also worsen the degree of moral hazard. This provides a lesson for other EU members. Instead of working hard and saving a lot of money, some will prefer to work less and spend more because if something happens they will have strong and generous colleagues to help.
The EU has given plenty of carrot to its members, so it has the right to give the stick to those who don’t comply with their commitments or try to cheat. The EU should not hesitate to expel any member of the union if necessary. This would not only be a lesson to the other members, but it would also cleanse the EU of free-loaders.
The EU has played an extremely important role in the world in the past and hopefully will continue to do so in the future. The global economy cannot afford a failing EU.
At the moment, the EU is in the Intensive Care Unit. We hope it will be able to take advantage of the situation to reflect and to reform.

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